Nevertheless, for the first time, president Néstor Kirchner has received, during his visit to Spain, an explicit warning of the government of Mr. Jose Maria Aznar about the necessity to regularize the Argentine financial situation immediately.
Can president Kirchner smooth his aggressive speech against the creditors without losing the support of those in favor?
President Kirchner has affirmed that he governs by the popular consensus, and his opinion is that the Argentine population supports the aggressive strategy against the creditors.
Who is the strategist of the Argentine national debt? Mr. Kirchner or Mr. Lavagna?
Is there an Argentine strategy or the only way is to push the bondholders?
This is important to respond because the document the Lineamientos de Dubai (Guidelines of Dubai) is not a strategy.
That document was modified in several opportunities by different civil employees from the Kirchner Administration.
In September of 2003, the International Monetary Fund pressed by a public supply to the creditors in default, and the Argentine Government offered a document that has contradictions and errors.
But, from the Monterrey Summit, in Mexico, the Bush Administration is convinced that in Argentina which matters it is what president Kirchner thinks. Then, Mr. Kirchner concentrates all the expectations.
Mr. John Taylor, undersecretary US Treasury ( International Affairs), spoke to president Kirchner: Either Mr. Kirchner modifies his point of view or Argentina goes to default with the IMF in March. Soon, to the global isolation. "Mr. Kirchner is a pragmatic leader, without a doubt he will understand", they think in Washington DC.
President Néstor Kirchner and the minister Lavagna agree in the election of an American bank could allow the Argentine Republic to reorganize its financial negotiation.
President Kirchner and minister Lavagna never spoke it because they do not trust each other.
Projects do not exist to modify to the legal adviser of Argentina in the negotiation. Although there are adverse commentaries towards which it is the participation of Cleary, Gottlieb, Steen & Hamilton in the rigid strategy of the Argentine Republic, lawyer Jonathan I. Blackman continues being the permanent interlocutor of the secretary of Finances, Guillermo Nielsen.
But this is one of the most delicate issues of possible 2nd. stage of negotiation because Mr. Lavagna could replace Mr. Nielsen as interlocutor of the creditors of the Argentine Republic.
Mr. Lavagna´s candidates are the secretary of Coordination, Leonardo Madcur, and the undersecretary of Financing, Sebastián Palla.
But if minister Lavagna decided to take that step, it would be against Mr. Nielsen’s opinion.
Mr. Nielsen and Mr. Madcur have both crossed critics off the record in the Argentine press during the last days.
Mr. Nielsen has blamed Mr. Madcur on the Argentine decision to force the creditors to register his claims, task assumed by the Lazard banks for a year.
Lazard receives to Argentina by those services.
That Argentine decision caused a strong backward movement in relation to the agreement of the 12/03/03 3, in Manhattan, with the members of Argentina Bondholders Committee.
In the Rockefeller Center, Mr. Nielsen, in the presence of the veedor of the IMF, Mr. Carlos Medeiro, accepted to create World-wide a Consultative Group and technical subcommittees of joint work.
However, in his declarations of Saturday 31st., minister Lavagna vindicated the registry of creditors, assuming any critic to that decision.
That position strengthens Mr. Madcur in the Argentine Economic Ministry.
But it does not reflect the doubts that Mr. Kirchner has about the 2nd level of the negotiation.
